BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

Putin Has Missed A Chance To Make The Peace

Following
This article is more than 2 years old.

One of my favourite Somerset Maugham books is ‘Ashenden’ (Up at the Villa and Of Human Bondage are still better I think). In it, not unlike Ian Fleming, Maugham falls back on his own experience as a British spy to evoke an espionage centric picture of Geneva of princesses, odd characters (‘the Hairless Mexican’), disappearances and the generally humdrum life of a spy.

Fear

Today Geneva is arguably a far less interesting place than it was in Maugham’s time, and whatever intrigue goes on is more of the financial kind (Robert Harris’ book ‘The Fear Index’ is set there). Last week, it was overrun by the agents of the US Secret Service and their Russian counterparts ahead of the Biden-Putin summit.

As an attractive, safe and well equipped location Geneva is ideal for such meetings, and also notable as the location of a very high proportion of what I describe as the world’s twentieth century institutions (WTO, WHO, parts of the UN etc), not to mention a long list of NGO’s. The notable element is that against the backdrop of an increasingly fractured world (of which the poor US-Russia relationship is a sign) many of these institutions are proving less relevant and devoid of the trust and credibility needed to function properly.

Gorbachev

In the past leaders from both countries have used Geneva as a meeting place – notably in 1985 where Gorbachev and Reagan, met there.  That may have been one of the last occasions when the US and Russian leaders were on a par in terms of their personal relationship, power and world view.

What troubles me when I think of this relationship now is the ability of both sides to regard the same set of facts in very, very different ways, something that contributes to a very high risk of misunderstanding.

Iraq

In particular Russians may consider the George W Bush presidency as a turning point – as he was being flown to safety in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack he received a call of support from Vladimir Putin – which Putin felt was not reciprocated. In particular, many in the Russian establishment feel that the second Iraqi War in 2003 was an aggressive abandonment of the international world order, and thus emboldened Moscow. Since then, the US/Russia relationship has hurtled downhill.

In this context, the vastly experienced Joe Biden will recall the rise and fall and rise (partly) again of Russia. One of his early visits there was in 1979, as a Senator and nuclear arms control advocate, to meet Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev and foreign minister Andrei Gromyko. It is not impossible that given Biden’s pedigree, Vladimir Putin turned up early for the meeting, having previously kept Barack Obama waiting 40 minutes, George W Bush waiting 45 minutes, and Shinzo Abe waiting 3 hours in 2016.

The significance of the Putin era is it has conceived a multifaceted military doctrine (I have written about General Gerasimov’s total war policy in the Levelling), and it uses its ability to ‘needle’ the West (be it through cyberattacks, the driving of migrants through European borders or adventures in Syria) as a source of geopolitical leverage. Joe Biden may now draw a halt to this, and should there be another provocation from Russia, it will be interesting to see the American response.

Democracy under attack

What Russia has also done cleverly is to find, amplify and almost weaponize the venality of the West be it in the area of money (former French prime minister Francois Fillon has taken up a role at a Russian state owned oil company), foreign policy (one of Europe’s weak points from a collective point of view, as exemplified by the EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell) and Europe’s disparate capabilities in cyber security.

That is not to say that Russia is in any way better than the EU, quite the opposite, as Catherine Belton’s superb book ‘Putin’s People’ shows. My view is that when it comes to educational attainment and human capital Russia is in a far better place than many think, but its government risks a potentially existential experiment in cutting it off from the West and dampening down freedom of expression.

Putin’s People

Russia may become a case study of the ‘fracturing’ of the world order in the post globalization era in the sense that its provocations of the West do permanent damage to trade and economic relations (that even the combined forces of Francois Fillon and Gerhard Schroeder cannot combat) and that its financial architecture (payment systems for instance) evolves towards other emerging markets.

What also remains to be seen is how innovation in the Russian economy is affected by the dulling of all political sensibilities. At this stage in its economic development Russia needs innovation across (the excellent IMD Competitiveness Rankings, released last week placed Russia in 45th place worldwide, up five places from last year).

A better strategy for Putin would have been to take the lead in outlining the contours of a binding, international cyber security law, that Russia and the US would then promote to other key cyber players. That he didn’t do so, and use a unique opportunity, is cause for alarm.