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IN AIR COMBAT, Basic Fighter Manoeuvres (BFM) are fundamentally about the principles of Lead and Lag. So, when you watch Tom Cruise chasing the bad guys in Top Gun, these are the flying rules he follows.
To position your aircraft behind the target for the purposes of intercepting and identifying it, one must use a skilful combination of hand-eye coordination, thrust and g-force. Too much “Lead” and you end up in front and make yourself exposed, too much “Lag” and you risk being miles behind the target without the time or power to catch up.
You have to focus, think fast, and rely on your extensive training, but in an ideal world, you’re also backed up by a whole system on the ground that includes radar and a command and control infrastructure.
The same principles can be applied to the capability development programmes earmarked under the Commission on the Defence Forces Report (2022) (CODF), its Levels of Ambition and its detailed implementation plan. These reports produced by the Government and the Dept of Defence are supposed to chart the way forward as to how Ireland will make the Defence Forces “Fit for Purpose” to respond to the security threats we face as a nation today.
What we know for sure is that the Government has committed to introducing a primary radar system and associated command and control infrastructure in order to allow us to monitor activity and identify the potential threats that exist in Irish airspace, as we are currently flying blind.
Tánaiste and Minister for Defence, Simon Harris, says he “is convinced that a squadron of jet interceptors will also be needed as we now live in a very different geopolitical environment”.
Fielding a squadron of supersonic jet interceptors would allow us to respond to the blips on our radar screens. The same kind of jets we saw on the silver screen, flown by Maverick and Ice Man, they provide the capacity to engage the likes of Russian military aircraft, light aircraft running drugs into Ireland under the cover of darkness and civilian airliners in distress.
Nearly all European countries possess this defence capability, including Austria, Bulgaria, Belgium, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Other smaller countries that do not possess their own jet interceptors are members of NATO and their air defence is provided by the alliance – they include Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Luxembourg.
Both projects, radar and jet interceptors, have a significant lead time to set up. Primary radar will involve purchasing the radar antenna heads, acquiring land to site the antennae, building a command-and-control centre, implementing IT systems and recruiting and training air operations staff. All this needs to be in place before the system is switched on. Once it’s on, it’s on for good. Ireland needs to decide in advance how it intends to respond to the information that the system provides, including air interception.
Standing up a squadron of supersonic jet interceptors is a serious undertaking with long lead times for equipment acquisition, recruiting and training staff and infrastructure development.
Defence sources recently suggested in an Irish Times article that “a primary military radar to detect airborne threats, something being worked on under Level of Ambition 2, would be required before any move could be made to purchase jet interceptors”.
Considering that a realistic timeline for the completed delivery of a supersonic jet interceptor squadron could be five years, a step-by-step sequential approach could realistically not see a fighter force operational until potentially 2033. The government cannot afford to delay this decision until after primary radar is delivered if it really is serious about standing up a supersonic jet interceptor capability.
Sources also suggested that Ireland could agree to a partnership arrangement with another European nation for the provision of Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) to police Irish airspace. One may argue that it already exists under a “secret deal” with the UK. RAF aircraft that respond to Russian threats flying down our west coast are doing so as part of a NATO response to Russian maritime surveillance activity.
This is not part of an Irish sovereign air policing strategy. Any partnership agreement to police Irish airspace could involve a deployment of both jets and personnel from a foreign military, potentially to an Irish air base. One would have to question the constitutional issues surrounding any bilateral arrangement of this kind, given the wording of articles 15.6.1 and 15.6.2 of our constitution. Would the Government risk embroiling itself in a constitutional debate and the potential need for a constitutional amendment surrounding the deployment on Irish soil of a military force raised outside of the Oireachtas?
Lastly, most European Air Forces are already heavily committed to NATO air policing missions in the Baltic states, Iceland and the NATO eastern flank in Romania, even before we consider the constitutional complications of a European partner patrolling Irish skies.
Can we afford all this investment? Direct comparisons in this debate are always helpful. Portugal is a similar country with an extensive Atlantic coastline and significant civilian air traffic flying over its airspace. Portugal has a GDP in the region of €260BN and spends approximately 1.6% of GDP on defence. It fields two squadrons of F16 supersonic jet interceptors and has primary radar coverage over all of its sovereign territory, including the Iberian mainland, the Madeira Islands and the Azores.
While Ireland has a GDP of €510 Bn Gross National Income (GNI*) is deemed an indicator used to more accurately measure the size of the economy by excluding globalisation effects. Ireland’s defence spending is 0.4% of its €290BN GNI* with a push to 0.72% under LOA2. The reality is Ireland is a much wealthier country than Portugal that spends a multiple less on defence.
Can we staff this investment? This is a hurdle to both projects, as the lead time to recruit and train personnel to staff these capabilities is significant, but not in any way insurmountable. What will help immediately will be a rapid implementation of the new Defence Forces’ structure and establishing the new Irish Air Force in line with CODF recommendations.
This will see a move away from a historically “Land Centric” Headquarters, where the Air Corps and Naval Service are seen as formations, and not as separate services. The new Chief of the Air Force will be directly responsible for raising, training and sustaining Air Force elements to meet present and future Defence Forces operational requirements.
As a rich nation Ireland has the financial wealth to accomplish these complex tasks, the principles of Lead and Lag are essential to dogfighting our way into a position where the young men and women signing up for today’s Defence Forces cadetships, apprenticeships and recruit training may have the opportunity to fly, maintain and control these systems in years to come.
Let’s Lead into the problem, not Lag behind it!
Kevin Phipps is an airline captain and retired Irish Air Corps officer.
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