Donald Trump is angry with Vladimir Putin, and that is the good news. The proximate reason is the massive weekend air strikes against civilians in Ukraine’s towns and cities. In the Trumpian diplomatic universe, this was not supposed to happen. Rather the Kremlin, nudged along by the US president’s blandishments, was thought to be on the road to signing a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
Instead, President Putin has shown no signs of wanting to end his war against Ukraine. Apart from the vicious assaults on sparsely protected urban centres, there are signs that Russian troops are starting to mass for a summer offensive, probably against the city of Kharkiv. It is the Ukrainian leadership under President Zelensky that has been making conciliatory gestures: Kyiv dropped demands for security guarantees as a precondition for talks. It imposed no conditions on a ceasefire and signed a minerals and economic partnership with the US. Mr Zelensky readied himself for peace talks in Turkey.
The Russian leader did not turn up, nor did the US president. A two-hour phone call between Washington and Moscow was billed by President Trump as “turkey time”, a last-gasp attempt to get the Kremlin to abandon war or face a tougher sanctions regime. In the end, it seems to have been something of a schmooze. Now, Mr Trump has expressed astonishment at the Russian leader’s behaviour. “He’s killing people. And something happened to this guy and I don’t like it,” he declared in what might turn out to be a Damascene moment. Many of Mr Putin’s neighbours have long since known that Kremlin policies often end up killing people.
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Since Mr Putin seems to see no advantage in ending his fighting, the only conceivable way of bringing him to the negotiating table is to apply mounting, targeted pressure on Moscow. That means giving Ukraine the means to shield itself. Ukraine is operating a range of western weaponry but the one that is mentioned most frequently is the US Patriot missile system. Used effectively, it can keep the skies above a city safe, especially if backed by other forms of air defence. Mr Trump harms Ukrainian morale when he threatens to “step aside” if the warring parties do not come to the table. Walking away from the defence of Ukraine means turning off intelligence flows, and could mean a block on land lease agreements that allow Ukraine to buy US weaponry.
The diplomatic discourse from the White House is therefore one-sided, weighting the dice against Kyiv. If Mr Trump still believes in his mediation mission, he has to both broaden and deepen financial and travel sanctions against Kremlin officials, banking and energy executives. Above all, it should be fine-tuned in such a way that the Russian economy suffers rather than profits from a continuation of the war. There are already 14 US sanctions designations against Russian defence companies, six Russian banks, and four energy companies. Yet so eager is Mr Trump to reset the relationship with Moscow, that he has disbanded a Justice Department task force formed to enforce sanctions and target the Kremlin.
The US Senate is due this week to consider secondary sanctions legislation drawn up by Senator Lindsey Graham to punish countries buying Russian oil and gas. Over the past three years of war, sanctions-dodging shadow fleets have helped to generate the cash to keep the Russian army in the field and in the skies. These profiteers could soon be hit, losing their markets in the US and much of the rest of the world. Mr Putin is convinced he can break Ukraine and outlast western unity. That will be put to the test at next month’s Nato summit. European allies, bracing themselves for criticism from Mr Trump, have been stepping up their defence contributions to the alliance. Now they, together with the US, must present an effective, united front in support of Ukraine.
